Saturday, April 20, 2013

The Age of Technology

I was browsing through the New York Times today and found a very interesting article about a recurring theme of Excel coding errors.  This may not seem important, but these errors tend to be on major projects and research that affect the whole country.  Here is the article.

A few examples of these errors are as follows:  "In this age of information, math errors can lead to disaster. NASA’s Mars Orbiter crashed because engineers forgot to convert to metric measurements; JPMorgan Chase’s 'London Whale' venture went bad in part because modelers divided by a sum instead of an average."

These are significant errors that lead to disaster and losses of millions of dollars.  Yes, technology has certainly improved many different areas, but we must be cognizant of the possibility of errors.  For example, there was a study done by two economists at Harvard.  This research was determining if there was a correlation between debt and economic growth.  The conclusion of this study was that once debt reaches 90% of the GDP, economic growth slows significantly.

This study came out a few weeks before the Greek crisis, which seemed to follow suit with the study.  As a result, almost everyone took the 90% threshold as fact, not theory.  News stations were referencing the 90% rule when advocating government spending cuts.  These cuts would lower debt, but also get rid of benefits for the unemployed.  And why was the reason this idea arose?  The Harvard study.

When researchers at U Mass looked over the data, they found an Excel coding error.  When corrected, there was absolutely no correlation between 90% of the GDP in debt and economic growth slowing.  What is to be learned?  In an age of technology, people are relying too heavily on electronic devices and programs that may have mistakes.  The 90% fiasco was a huge deal and could have seriously affected millions of Americans even though it wasn't a proven theory. Americans jump to conclusions when they hear an idea.  This can lead to problems.  Technology is beneficial, but we cannot rely too much on it.

Do you think Americans rely too heavily on technology?  Why or why not?  And what can we do to prevent these errors and misconceptions?  Please leave comments below.

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